Nasdaq seasonality can differ from the S&P 500 because technology and growth stocks dominate more of the index. That makes monthly comparisons especially useful when studying risk-on and risk-off calendar behavior.
Sector concentration, valuation sensitivity and changing interest-rate expectations can make Nasdaq monthly patterns look stronger or weaker than broad-market patterns.
Technology-heavy markets can react more strongly to shifts in rates and risk appetite.
Large upside and downside years can make averages more sensitive to outliers.
A month that ranks well for the S&P 500 may not rank the same way for Nasdaq.
Start with January through December as clean recurring windows. Compare average return, median and win rate to identify candidate strong and weak periods.
If one month stands out, test nearby start and end dates. This helps determine whether the effect is genuinely monthly or concentrated around only a few weeks.
Inspect recurring calendar windows and historical year-by-year behavior for ^IXIC.
| Measure | Use |
|---|---|
| Average return | Ranks magnitude but can be distorted by extreme years. |
| Median return | Shows a more typical historical outcome. |
| Win rate | Shows how often the month was positive. |
| Lookback stability | Tests whether the pattern persists through different regimes. |
Historical seasonality is descriptive and does not guarantee future Nasdaq performance.